Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 13.321303 16.214675 19.429863 23.245731 27.628221 32.481166 38.237778
2026-01-18 9.418084 13.203508 17.865161 23.931326 31.512719 40.568431 52.086982
2026-01-25 6.834496 10.795410 16.101941 23.523357 33.405810 45.874009 62.526220
2026-02-01 5.347636 9.376922 15.177625 23.785335 35.840377 51.706699 73.692070
2026-02-08 4.108085 7.986404 13.970856 23.355804 37.114307 55.913662 82.809389
2026-02-15 3.138798 6.769480 12.766768 22.679438 37.840435 59.271745 90.819025
2026-02-22 2.643814 6.232234 12.507731 23.333659 40.458945 65.317706 102.721653
2026-03-01 2.095570 5.455233 11.708122 22.996759 41.491290 69.076659 111.513502
2026-03-08 1.712436 4.901900 11.193787 23.032856 43.045543 73.615817 121.557883
2026-03-15 1.298066 4.158837 10.195439 22.096131 42.919533 75.563424 127.825999
2026-03-22 1.119039 3.909504 10.102829 22.736050 45.396126 81.577633 140.349067
2026-03-29 0.945404 3.620846 9.878726 23.093927 47.393520 86.904394 152.002625
2026-04-05 0.789062 3.346336 9.677417 23.547105 49.718291 93.076506 165.558315
2026-04-12 0.668459 3.135275 9.585996 24.215143 52.489539 100.143410 180.865262
2026-04-19 0.513329 2.745050 8.999316 23.801625 53.255831 103.931041 191.129327
2026-04-26 0.418982 2.517052 8.757524 24.065910 55.267583 109.858154 204.993712
2026-05-03 0.317864 2.204118 8.227503 23.632379 55.905841 113.454745 215.185169
2026-05-10 0.232088 1.893495 7.625944 22.949696 55.985922 116.058176 223.804254
2026-05-17 0.196442 1.795631 7.609323 23.610028 58.753085 123.464386 240.612674
2026-05-24 0.147010 1.582904 7.196127 23.269985 59.464988 127.235144 251.432046
2026-05-31 0.114345 1.435869 6.951384 23.306420 60.939263 132.418395 264.786581
2026-06-07 0.076598 1.203398 6.353076 22.360911 60.268689 133.639852 271.375945
2026-06-14 0.063991 1.148160 6.364182 23.006838 63.040106 141.317778 289.342980